Predicting individual disease risk based on medical history

Authors: 
Darcy Davis, Nitesh V. Chawla, Nicholas Blumm, Nicholas Christakis, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi
Citation: 
Davis, Darcy A., et al. "Predicting individual disease risk based on medical history." Proceedings of the 17th ACM conference on Information and knowledge management. ACM, 2008.
Publication Date: 
October, 2008

The monumental cost of health care, especially for chronic disease treatment, is quickly becoming unmanageable. This crisis has motivated the drive towards preventative medicine, where the primary concern is recognizing disease risk and taking action at the earliest signs. However, universal testing is neither time nor cost efficient. We propose CARE, a Collaborative Assessment and Recommendation Engine, which relies only on a patient's medical history using ICD-9-CM codes in order to predict future diseases risks. CARE uses collaborative filtering to predict each patient's greatest disease risks based on their own medical history and that of similar patients. We also describe an Iterative version, ICARE, which incorporates ensemble concepts for improved performance. These novel systems require no specialized information and provide predictions for medical conditions of all kinds in a single run. We present experimental results on a Medicare dataset, demonstrating that CARE and ICARE perform well at capturing future disease risks.